QUICK LINKS
Washington4-4WizardsTT 109.5–
7:00 PM ETState Farm Arena
Atlanta5-4HawksTT 118.0–
Boston6-2CelticsTT 110.0–
7:00 PM ETSpectrum Center
Charlotte3-6HornetsTT 99.5–
Philadelphia8-176ersTT 117.5–
7:30 PM ETRocket Arena
Cleveland4-4CavaliersTT 115.0–
Utah1-7JazzTT 109.5–
8:00 PM ETAmerican Airlines Center
Dallas4-4MavericksTT 116.0–
Oklahoma City6-2ThunderTT 114.0–
8:00 PM ETFedExForum
Memphis6-2GrizzliesTT 109.5–
Toronto4-4RaptorsTT 116.0–
8:00 PM ETFiserv Forum💥 BLOWOUT WATCH · TOR 36% TO WIN BY 20+ · TOR -3.5
Milwaukee1-7BucksTT 112.5–
Minnesota6-3TimberwolvesTT 117.0–
8:00 PM ETSmoothie King Center
New Orleans4-4PelicansTT 113.5–
Portland6-1Trail BlazersTT 114.0–
10:00 PM ETcrypto.com Arena
Los Angeles7-2LakersTT 117.5–
San Antonio6-2SpursTT 124.5–
10:00 PM ETGolden 1 Center💥 BLOWOUT WATCH · SAS 54% TO WIN BY 20+ · SA -17.5 💸 EARLY PAYOUT POTENTIAL · SAS 67% TO LEAD BY 20+
Sacramento1-7KingsTT 107.0–
⭐ Projected Winners (7)
Conditions: Only teams with 55%+ simulated win probability are shown. ★ = 65-74%, ★★ = 75-84%, ★★★ = 85%+.
Criteria: Win probability blends the 10,000 possession-by-possession sims (player rotations and rates, the same sims behind the game sim viewer) with the DraftKings market, plus trend and matchup adjustments.
Rating basis: "Rated without" names the injured players already excluded from that team's sim rating. "Rating pending" means a player was just ruled out and the re-sim has not landed yet.
SAS ★★★SAS @ SAC · 10:00 PM ETRated without: Harris, Quaintancemarket 89%; model 89%
89%win prob
BOS ★BOS @ CHA · 7:00 PM ETRated without: Cartermarket 78%; model 67%
73%win prob
ATL ★WAS @ ATL · 7:00 PM ETRated without: Johnson, Landale, Newell +3market 73%; model 70%
71%win prob
TOR ★TOR @ MIL · 8:00 PM ETRated without: Barnes, Quickley, Leonard +1model 78%; market 59%
68%win prob
DAL ★UTA @ DAL · 8:00 PM ETRated without: Larrea, Biberovic, Livelymarket 69%; model 64%
67%win prob
MIN —MIN @ NOP · 8:00 PM ETRated without: Edwards, Shannon, DiVincenzomodel 68%; market 60%
64%win prob
OKC —OKC @ MEM · 8:00 PM ETRated without: Williams, Holmgren, Wallace +3market 61%; model 61%
61%win prob
Model projections, not guarantees. For informational purposes only.
👀 Props to watch - all games
＋
1
Joel Embiid o0.5 3PM PHI @ CLE
Soft vs C all season (#30) + L7 (#30) · no potential data · hit 10 of 10
Over in 10 of the last 10 games
2
Isaiah Hartenstein o0 3PM OKC @ MEM
Soft vs C all season (#27) + L7 (#29) · no potential data · hit 10 of 10
Over in 10 of the last 10 games
3
Ryan Kalkbrenner o0 3PM BOS @ CHA
Soft vs C all season (#26) + L7 (#28) · no potential data · hit 10 of 10
Over in 10 of the last 10 games
4
Devin Vassell o1.5 3PM SAS @ SAC
Soft vs PF all season (#28) + L7 (#29) · no potential data · hit 7 of 10
Over in 7 of the last 10 games
5
Nickeil Alexander-Walker o3.5 3PM WAS @ ATL
Soft vs SG all season (#28) + L7 (#29) · no potential data · hit 6 of 10
Over in 6 of the last 10 games
6
Jaylen Wells o1.5 3PM OKC @ MEM
Soft vs SF all season (#29) + L7 (#26) · no potential data · hit 8 of 10
Over in 8 of the last 10 games
7
LaMelo Ball o3.5 3PM MIN @ NOP
Soft vs PG all season (#26) + L7 (#28) · no potential data · hit 7 of 10
Over in 7 of the last 10 games
8
Walker Kessler o1 3PM POR @ LAL
Soft vs C all season (#29) + L7 (#27) · no potential data · hit 5 of 10
Over in 5 of the last 10 games
Minutes watch - soft matchup but not ranked:
⏳ Anthony Davis REB - bench role - minutes not bankable
⏳ Bilal Coulibaly PTS - bench role - minutes not bankable
⏳ Justin Champagnie REB - bench role - minutes not bankable
⏳ Khris Middleton REB - bench role - minutes not bankable
⏳ Felix Okpara PTS - bench role - minutes not bankable
⏳ Anthony Gill PTS - bench role - minutes not bankable
+107 more not ranked (minutes risk)
Ranked: projected starters only · favorable vs position in both season and L7 splits · 🩹 players excluded until confirmed.
🎯 The 100% Cheatsheets＋
Brice Sensabaugh o7.5 PTS UTA vs DAL
5/5Last 5
Keldon Johnson o9.5 PTS SAS vs SAC
5/5Last 5
Collin Sexton o8.5 PTS LAL vs POR
5/5Last 5
Jeremiah Fears o13.5 PTS NOP vs MIN
5/5Last 5
Jaylen Brown o20.5 PTS PHI vs CLE
5/5Last 5
Ryan Rollins o11.5 PTS MIL vs TOR
5/5Last 5
Perfect runs from the game logs on file against today's PropLine lines. A hot run is form, not a guarantee.
📊 Model record · 55-37 · 60%＋
55-37 graded60% on graded sim picks
90% and up
4-1 80%
80 to 89%
7-3 70%
70 to 79%
27-17 61%
60 to 69%
17-15 53%
Under 60%
0-1 0%
| Player | Pick | Model % | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khaman Maluach | Over 5.5 PTS | 80.4% | 8 | Hit |
| Khaman Maluach | Over 5.5 REB | 72.3% | 6 | Hit |
| Draymond Green | Over 5.5 PTS | 67.7% | 2 | Miss |
| Brayden Burries | Under 11.5 PTS | 65% | 9 | Hit |
| Mario Hezonja | Over 3.5 REB | 76.1% | 8 | Hit |
| Jakob Poeltl | Over 6.5 PTS | 74% | 8 | Hit |
| Coby White | Over 12.5 PTS | 73.8% | 4 | Miss |
| Cooper Flagg | Under 25.5 PTS | 65% | 19 | Hit |
Every graded sim pick in the ledger, wins and losses. Model % is the sim probability for the pick before the game.
Note
Lineups via RotoWire · confirmed lineups are usually announced about 1 hour before tip-off, or when the team releases them.